내부 밸런스 비교 CLI와 조건별 대조 실험을 추가한다

2026-09-29 10:55:43 +00:00
parent b060bc83bf
commit 4b00c1052d
7 changed files with 990 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+import { readFile, writeFile } from 'node:fs/promises';
+import path from 'node:path';
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
+
+const root = fileURLToPath(new URL('../../', import.meta.url));
+const directory = path.resolve(root, process.argv[2] ?? 'test-results/balance-lab/units');
+const read = async (file) => JSON.parse(await readFile(path.join(directory, file), 'utf8'));
+const manifest = await read('manifest.json');
+if (!manifest.completed) throw new Error('Cannot analyze an incomplete experiment');
+const rows = await read('summary.json');
+const catalog = await read('catalog.json');
+const names = new Map([
+    ...catalog.units.map((entry) => [String(entry.id), entry.name]),
+    ...[...catalog.items, ...catalog.war, ...catalog.nations].map((entry) => [entry.key, entry.name]),
+]);
+const name = (key) => names.get(key) ?? key;
+const mean = (numbers) => numbers.reduce((sum, x) => sum + x, 0) / numbers.length;
+const percent = (number) => (number * 100).toFixed(1);
+const lines = [
+    `# ${manifest.suite}: ${manifest.design}`,
+    '',
+    `- Source: ${manifest.commit}, SHA-256 ${manifest.sourceHash}`,
+    `- ${manifest.cells} cells × ${manifest.samples} seeds; ${manifest.battles} battles.`,
+    '- Synthetic scenario screen, not live win rate. Cell intervals are descriptive; no multiplicity correction.',
+    '- Exchange = enemy loss fraction minus own loss fraction; numbers below are percentage points.',
+    '- Opponents and attack/defence cells have equal weight. These are designed scenario means, not independent samples.',
+    '',
+];
+const groups = new Map();
+for (const row of rows.filter((entry) => entry.mode === 'field')) {
+    const key = JSON.stringify([row.key, row.build, row.budget ?? 'equal-crew']);
+    if (!groups.has(key)) groups.set(key, []);
+    groups.get(key).push(row);
+}
+const ranking = [...groups.values()]
+    .map((group) => {
+        const paired = Boolean(group[0].delta);
+        const scores = group.map((row) => (paired ? row.delta : row.treatment).exchange.mean);
+        return {
+            key: group[0].key,
+            build: group[0].build,
+            budget: group[0].budget ?? 'equal-crew',
+            effect: paired ? 'vs-empty-control' : 'absolute-exchange',
+            cells: group.length,
+            mean: mean(scores),
+            worstCell: Math.min(...scores),
+            bestCell: Math.max(...scores),
+            aboveScreen: scores.filter((score) => score >= 0.1).length / scores.length,
+            belowScreen: scores.filter((score) => score <= -0.1).length / scores.length,
+        };
+    })
+    .sort((a, b) => b.mean - a.mean);
+lines.push(
+    '## Field screen',
+    '',
+    '| Candidate | Build | Budget | Mean | Worst cell | Best cell | Cells >=10 pp |',
+    '| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |'
+);
+for (const row of ranking)
+    lines.push(
+        `| ${name(row.key)} | ${row.build} | ${row.budget} | ${percent(row.mean)} | ${percent(row.worstCell)} | ${percent(row.bestCell)} | ${percent(row.aboveScreen)}% |`
+    );
+if (['units', 'families', 'tiers'].includes(manifest.suite)) {
+    lines.push('', '## Matchup matrices (attack/defence mean)', '');
+    const strata = [...new Set(rows.filter((row) => row.mode === 'field').map((row) => `${row.build}/${row.budget}`))];
+    for (const stratum of strata) {
+        const subset = rows.filter((row) => row.mode === 'field' && `${row.build}/${row.budget}` === stratum);
+        const candidates = [...new Set(subset.map((row) => row.key))];
+        const opponents = [...new Set(subset.map((row) => row.opponent))];
+        lines.push(
+            `### ${stratum}`,
+            '',
+            `| Candidate | ${opponents.map((id) => name(String(id))).join(' | ')} |`,
+            `| --- | ${opponents.map(() => '---:').join(' | ')} |`
+        );
+        for (const candidate of candidates)
+            lines.push(
+                `| ${name(candidate)} | ${opponents.map((opponent) => percent(mean(subset.filter((row) => row.key === candidate && row.opponent === opponent).map((row) => row.treatment.exchange.mean)))).join(' | ')} |`
+            );
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+}
+lines.push(
+    '',
+    '## Siege (do not combine with field exchange)',
+    '',
+    '| Candidate | Build | Budget / city defence | Wall damage | Change vs control | Rice | Own dead |',
+    '| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |'
+);
+for (const row of rows
+    .filter((entry) => entry.mode === 'siege')
+    .sort((a, b) => b.treatment.wallDamage.mean - a.treatment.wallDamage.mean)) {
+    lines.push(
+        `| ${name(row.key)} | ${row.build}${row.condition ? '/' + row.condition : ''} | ${row.budget ?? 'equal-crew'}/${row.wall ?? 1000} | ${row.treatment.wallDamage.mean.toFixed(0)} | ${row.delta ? row.delta.wallDamage.mean.toFixed(0) : 'n/a'} | ${row.treatment.rice.mean.toFixed(0)} | ${row.treatment.dead.mean.toFixed(0)} |`
+    );
+}
+if (manifest.suite === 'interactions') {
+    lines.push(
+        '',
+        '## Factorial interactions',
+        '',
+        'Synergy = both - trait alone - item alone + neither.',
+        '',
+        '| Pair | Mode | Condition | Exchange delta | Exchange synergy | Wall delta | Wall synergy |',
+        '| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |'
+    );
+    for (const row of rows)
+        lines.push(
+            `| ${row.key} | ${row.mode} | ${row.condition}/city-${row.wall ?? 1000} | ${row.delta.exchange ? percent(row.delta.exchange.mean) : 'n/a'} | ${row.synergy.exchange ? percent(row.synergy.exchange.mean) : 'n/a'} | ${row.delta.wallDamage.mean.toFixed(0)} | ${row.synergy.wallDamage.mean.toFixed(0)} |`
+        );
+}
+await writeFile(path.join(directory, 'screen.json'), JSON.stringify(ranking, null, 2));
+await writeFile(path.join(directory, 'screen.md'), lines.join('\n') + '\n');
+console.log(JSON.stringify({ directory, groups: ranking.length, largest: ranking.slice(0, 5) }));